Employers group Ibec has forecast that the economy will continue to expand in 2025 with employment growing by 2.4%.
It said domestic demand would grow by 3% this year and by 2% in 2026.
The organisation projected that consumer spending will grow by 3.1% while investment will expand by 4.2% this year.
Ibec’s forecast comes during a hail storm of annoucements in the US in the first days of the Trump presidency, including the withdrawal of support for the global tax pact agreed by the OECD.
Danny McCoy, CEO of Ibec, said the OECD corporate tax rate had been hugely advantageous to Ireland, but the pact was “dead in the water” and would have been regardless of who going to be US president.
“We knew this was coming,” he said. “There is no point in panicking about this. I think a lot of what underpins our economic forecast is under our own control.”
He said Ireland needs to get competitive and focus on delivering the infrastructure projects that are needed for continued economic growth.
Ibec said employment by the end of 2025 will be almost 500,000 higher than it was in 2019, with growth showing signs of moderating domestically.
The business group said that growth as measured by Gross Domestic Product would expand by 1.7% this year and 2.1% in 2026.
Ahead of the new Cabinet getting seals of office today, Mr McCoy said the main barrier to growth will be delivering on “critical infrastructure” such as water, housing, energy and transport.
The Ibec report said that growth in the Irish economy remained robust despite a more challenging global outlook.
The report added the “erosion of our competitiveness” was driven by investor concerns about Ireland’s ability to complete projects on time and on budget.
It warned that conflicting economic policy aims of the Trump administration will lead to greater levels of global uncertainty in 2025.
Ibec also said that the imposition of tariffs on goods imported by the US would add to American inflation.
It also warned that the planned scale of deficits under the incoming Trump administration would make it significantly more difficult to moderate US inflation.
Domestically Ibec said its survey of almost 400 HR managers showed basic pay in the economy grew by 4.1% last year when compared to 2023.
On consumer spending it said: “Spending on credit and debit cards continued its upward trajectory over the past year, with monthly card spending averaging €8.3 billion in 2024.”
Article Source – Economy to expand in 2025, employment to grow 2.4% – Ibec forecasts – RTE