European Central Bank vice-president Luis de Guindos hinted at a possible interest rate cut in September, singling out the ECB’s new projections as the “most important” factor in determining whether inflation is falling back to target.
The ECB left rates on hold last week but President Christine Lagarde said its next meeting in September was “wide open”, with several policymakers openly considering more cuts as inflationary pressures ease.
De Guindos said the ECB paused last week after cutting rates in June because it would have more data in September, including fresh internal forecasts for inflation through 2026.
“In September we will have another two months of data on inflation and underlying inflation, but the new macroeconomic projections will be the most important,” de Guindos told Spanish news agency Europa Press in an interview published today.
“When we say that we want to have more confidence, we mean more confidence that at the end of 2025 inflation will be at our definition of price stability, which is an inflation rate of 2% over the medium term. That’s the key question,” he said.
The ECB’s current projections, published in June, see inflation falling to 2% in the last quarter of next year, three months later than in the previous round of forecasts.