Ireland will need to build 93,000 homes a year meet demand between now and 2031, according to a report by stockbroker Davy.
The estimate is significantly higher than housebuilding targets included in the Coalition’s Programme for Government, which envisages 300,000 new homes being built between 2025 and 2030.
Last year there were only 30,000 homes built in Ireland, which fell short of the Government’s official target of 33,000 and far below projections by then minister for housing Darragh O’Brien.
Davy’s forecast is based on its estimate that the population will reach six million by 2031.
The report says the housing shortfall is now 230,000 homes.
It also says the lack of housing is impacting on household formation for younger age groups as it affects that cohort of the population having families.
“Urgent reforms are needed. These include an overhaul of strict rent caps, a number of measures targeted at reducing housing construction costs, and further streamlining of the planning system for critical infrastructure, including housing development,” the report says.
It also says it will take “considerably longer than seven years” to reach the Housing Commission’s recommendation that the share of the social housing stock be increased to 20%.
Davy says the need for housing has been continuously “systematically underestimated due to an unexpectedly strong economic and population backdrop.”
Davy’s Chief Economist said that, at best, Ireland can build up to 75,000 houses a year by 2031 despite demand by this time requiring more.
Kevin Timoney said this would “be a stabilisation basically of the situation” as it will “still leave the country short of what’s needed”.
Speaking on RTÉ’s News at One, Mr Timoney said for the forecast figure to be achievable “some reforms are necessary”, including apartment delivery.
This, he said, “is going to be a big part of any scale up” as this is the ” main source” of why housing targets have been missed.
He said the difference between what is fundamentally needed for the rest of the decade and what was delivered “is huge”.
Pent up demand “is really significant”, he said, adding that “it does not go away”.
Article Source – Ireland will need to build 93,000 homes a year up to 2031 – Davy – RTE